WebQuest

Experimental vs. Theoretical Probability

Process

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Consider the main question leading this activity.  How can we make a comparison of experimental and theoretical probability?  Will these probabilities ever be the same?

You will need to complete and follow the attched activity sheet at the bottom of this page!  Also I have added an attachment for the websites below.  So as you examine the procedure of the visit the various website below!

a. To explore these questions I would like you to begin by completing a simulation on flipping coins. http:nlvm.usu.eduennavframes_asid_305_g_4_t_5.html?fromcategory_g_4_t_5.html   To begin I would like you to start with 10 trials and examine your results.  Record them on the activity sheet (attached below).  Also pay special attention to your bar graph of your results.  Next allow your trials to increase to 50, 100, and 1000.  Once again record your results on the activity sheet.  You may need to conduct this experiment more than one time before you come to some final conclusions!

b. The next site I would like you to explore involves an adjustible spinner. While using this spinner I would like you to examine the chart below the spinner on the site. I would also  like you to vary the number of spins you use in your spinner by starting with a small number such as four and increasing the number of spins to a much larger number such as 100.  Watch closely how your experimental and theoretical probabilities compare.  Also you can adjust your spinner to have different sections if you wish.  Answer the essential questions on the activity sheet (attached below).
http:illuminations.nctm.orgactivitydetail.aspx?ID79

c. The next task is to complete teh sample space section of the activity sheet.  Determine what the theoretical probability is of two dice having a sum of 6, 7, 8, or 9.  Also determine the theoretical probability of two dice having a sum of 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 11, or 12.  use the results from your table to make a prediction of whether the hair will catch the tortoise on the following site. 
http:www.mathsonline.co.uknonmembersresourceprobchaseme1.html

d. Your last individual task is to complete the interactive dice board on the following site.  Use the information on the site to determine theoretical probabilities of certain players winning.  At the bottom of the page it says, Player A wins in __________________ out of ___________outcomes.  Critique this page and describe why this isnt always necessary true.
 
http:www.shodor.orginteractivateactivitiesDiceTable

e. Your final task is to get into the specific groups that I have chosen and derive some final conclusions.  Make a comparison between the data you collected and your group members collected.  How are they similar and how are they different?  What seems to be a reoccurring theme between all of your activity sheets?  What are some final conclusions that are reached?

The Public URL for this WebQuest:
http://zunal.com/webquest.php?w=73707
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